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New Article:
THE MIDWEST: Hole in the Donut
New Article:
EMPIRE TRAP
New Article:
MILITARY BUILDUP (PDF File)
New Article:
IMMIGRATION
New Article:
JESUS AND EMPIRE
Core Concepts:
NONPRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT
Core Concepts:
EVERY OTHER
GENERATION
Graph:
CRIME
AND MILITARY SPENDING
Graph:
REAGANOMICS
Graph:
LONG
TERM TREND
Graph:
FEDERAL SPENDING
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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BOOKS AND TAPES
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The year by year predictive value of the Model vs. Actual is weak at
first in the twenties and increasing strong by the nineties. If you add
the combined underestimates and compare them with the combined
overestimates in each Juglar cycle, they almost perfectly cancel each
other out, giving the exceedingly accurate 8-10 year periods.
Additionally, the yearly combined over and under inaccuracies decrease
by a consistent 1.5% in each succeeding cycle from 1921-1982, showing a
steady improvement in controlling the inventory cycle by US businesses.
The last two cycles 1983-1996 show how the public policy variables of
the deficit and military spending are almost the only main short term
instabilities in the system. More information is in Peace Economics.
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