The biggest impediments to economic growth are the military and temperature.
When they go up the economy shrinks, when they go down the economy grows.
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One Page SUMMARY of Both Key Theories
Even cycle skeptics concede when they see this graph:
TEMPERATURE GRAPH PROVES CYCLE THEORY
Real Economy is a better way to
understand and even accurately forecast ECONOMICS, POLITICS, HISTORY AND CLIMATE CHANGE.
MILITARY SPENDING and TEMPERATURE dominate all three fields in ways only Reuschlein has dared to imagine. Here are the basics: military spending (1) reduces the national economic growth rate dollar for dollar.
Productivity v Govt. Manufacturing.
(2) transfers tax resources unequally among states more than any other element of the federal budget. (3) comprises the largest slush fund in government, giving great power to political leadership. (4) weakens the national economy over time so that the nation's defense is weakened accordingly. (5) causes the decline of empire and the social decay of empire.CRIME AND MILITARY SPENDING
(6) Global warming trends stifle economic growth and global cooling trends boost economic growth.
BEST LIST of 32 KEY PAPERS and CHARTS
Long List of two minute WORT radio kiosk commentaries on my blog
THREE GREAT ONE HOUR VIDEO SELECTIONS:
Dr. Robert Reuschlein (aka Dr. Peace) gives his 45 minute award winning EMPIRE ECONOMICS talk about socioeconomic decay of empire at Peace Fest 5(five minute audience commentaries in the last hour of the tape)
EMPIRE ECONOMICS45 minute talk plus commentaries
Dr. Reuschlein's video at Peace Fest 4 (one hour)
November 17, 2012
Peace Fest "Global Warming and War Cycle"
This later CREATED A SENSATION in Chicago July 20, 2013 at the World Futurist Society.
Dr. Reuschlein at JFK and Empire (first 42 minutes)
JFK and Empire November 21, 2013
This looks at the lost opportunity of the World Peace Presidency of John Fitzgerald Kennedy.
TWO GREAT ONE HOUR RADIO SELECTIONS:
Dr. Robert Reuschlein (aka Dr. Peace) talks about the military-industrial complex, global climate, and Peace Fest 4 (audio is fast moving and fun)
Peace Fest interview WTDY Kurt Baron
Peace Economics History (Very unusual views: audio history of US presidents since WWII)
peace economy history since WWII
CURRENT PEACE ECONOMICS ANALYSIS
The two year military buildup after 9-11-01 caused 2.8 million manufacturing jobs to be lost: 1 million jobs due to trade treaties and 1.7 million jobs lost due to the military buildup. That military buildup through 2004 cost three times the lost jobs per capita in the lower military half of the nation as in the higher military half of the nation.
The military buildup was concentrated on the Atlantic Coast states and the Southern and Southwestern border states between Florida and California, especially the President’s home state of Texas. These are the same areas and states most affected by the sub-prime mortgage crisis. The uneven military buildup over stimulated the real estate markets in the military boom states, setting up the Great Recession. Reagan’s military buildup in the eighties had very similar dynamics ending up in the Saving and Loan Bailout. The difference was 2400 S & L executives prosecuted and 800 jailed under Reagan/Bush, but none of that against today’s too big to fail banks.
The Iraq surge added troops in Iraq and $70 billion to the war costs above the normal Pentagon budget. This last economic drain to the economy took about a year to push us into the banking collapse of September 2008.
The surge policy was announced in December of 2006 and six months later the new troops arrive in Iraq. The unemployment rate increased nearly every month for two years, starting in July 2007 and ending in June 2009.
Obama was the first Democratic president since World War Two to NOT cut military spending in his first year. This will keep the recovery weaker than expected.
Wilson to Obama, 1910-2009, The military economy century
Why Did Dr. Bob Reuschlein Develop Peace Economics?
The main reason I began Peace Economics was because two years after my personal revelation in 1983, I noticed that the world press did not share my enthusiasm. Even people in the Progressive Magazine offices in 1986 and other leftists believed just the opposite to be true: that military spending stimulated the economy. Something was wrong. Ruth Sivard's 1981 bar chart showed clearly that as a nation's military increased, the economic growth rate decreased. So I set out to discover the real truth once and for all, and it has been an amazing journey. Without intending to, I found out that excessive military spending can hurt a nation's defense in the long term. Then I discovered that the 54 year economic cycle and the input/output model helped reconcile the pro (seemingly true on the regional level) and con (true on the national and continental levels) military economy debate into one coherent theory. Then I discovered that the deficit, especially in World War II, explains why following military spending alone can be misleading. Then I discovered that a long term model of military spending and the economy leads to the inclusion of the Juglar cycle of about eight to ten years. Then I discovered the regional and military state concepts explain why every president elected in the Cold War came from a high military state. The social decay of empire concept emerged after a conversation with my uncle. A direct international association of murder and military spending came out of that empire theory. After the 1988 drought, followed by three years of searching sixteen global and U.S. data sets and a lot of soul searching, I discovered the source of the 54 year economic cycle was actually in a global warming and cooling cycle. The temperature cycle leads the economic cycle which leads the war cycle. This last point is the most difficult of all to teach, as it can easily be a full workshop by itself.
Unfortunately, there has been little increase in understanding a quarter century later among the press, politicians, or academics. But the need to understand these new concepts has never been greater. Without these new insights, countless miscalculations occur every day by the press and pundits, as these insights still put me way ahead of the best of the pundits and economists. The military centered empire perspective is sadly lacking from most intellectuals thinking, and if you want to judge my work by their standards you can easily put me down. Its hard to adopt a whole new way of looking at the world, but my work is rigorous and internally consistent. Paul Krugman of Princeton and the New York Times still thinks that World War II brought us out of the Great Depression. John Nichols of The Nation still thinks trade alone explains all the current international economic disruptions. Larry Summers thinks military spending stimulates the economy and so we remain in Afghanistan. Joe Stieglitz gets it right, but devotes only one page to military economics in his Three Trillion Dollar War book. I would gladly challenge any of them to a debate, they all have a lot to learn from my work. Likewise, the global warming debate would greatly improve in accuracy if they incorporated the 55 year cycle. For two thirds of a century (1910-1973) my 55 year moving average of temperature clearly shows an almost perfect .998 correlation, with a doubling of the heat rate since 1973 on a new linear track with a .997 correlation. Come on world, it's time to catch up with Reuschlein's theories. Join the new Copernican revolution before we end up in the new Feudalism.
PEACE ECONOMICS SUCCESS
Peace Economics shows that empires rise to their peak with low military spending, militarize, then slowly collapse with high levels of military spending. Also, brain drains toward the center of power can significantly delay the decline of empire (see IMMIGRATION.).
The accuracy of the economic model developed
from these findings is about TEN TIMES BETTER than mainstream economic forecasting.
The longer the time period and the larger the geographic area, the closer this system
comes to perfection.
The higher a nation's military spending the
lower its manufacturing productivity, a main ingredient in economic growth. (see Productivity v Govt. Manufacturing.)
why Germany and Japan caught up with the United States and Italy passed Great
Britain during the Cold War. In the nineties, cutting the military in half restored
more economic forces to the normal economy in the United States than in any other leading
America became the LEADING NATION in the world
due to a century and a half of low military spending, and all great powers arise this way.
Then they militarize as the U.S. did in World War II and eventually collapse under the
All these findings were so stunningly
unambiguous that the models I built out of these findings were unusually exact and
relatively simple. In country after country, time period after time period, the pattern
persists. This is not another self-delusional prophecy; it represents enduring
The links below show the model accuracy period by period:
MODEL ACCURACY - MODEL VOLATILITY
Model and actual are virtually identical. The volatility model shows the increasing
accuracy over time of the year by year results: Five times as accurate today as in
the roaring twenties.
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