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Real Economy is a better way to
understand and even accurately forecast ECONOMICS, POLITICS, and HISTORY.
MILITARY SPENDING dominates all three fields in ways you never imagined. Here are the basics: military spending (1) reduces the national economic growth rate dollar for dollar.
(see Productivity v Govt. Manufacturing.)
(2) transfers tax resources unequally among states more than any other element of the federal budget. (3) comprises the largest slush fund in government, giving great power to political leadership. (4) weakens the national economy over time so that the nation's defense is weakened accordingly. (5) causes the decline of empire and the social decay of empire. See CRIME
AND MILITARY SPENDING
Dr. Robert Reuschlein (aka Dr. Peace) talks about the military-industrial complex, global climate change, and Peace Fest 4 Peace Fest interview WTDY Kurt Baron
Dr. Reuschlein's presentation at Peace Fest 4 Peace Fest "Global Warming and War Cycle"
Peace Economics History (radio interview) peace economy history since WWII
Why Did Dr. Bob Reuschlein Develop Peace Economics?
The main reason I began Peace Economics was because two years after my personal revelation in 1983, I noticed that the world press did not share my enthusiasm. Even people in the Progressive Magazine offices in 1986 and other leftists believed just the opposite to be true: that military spending stimulated the economy. Something was wrong. Ruth Sivard's 1981 bar chart showed clearly that as a nation's military increased, the economic growth rate decreased. So I set out to discover the real truth once and for all, and it has been an amazing journey. Without intending to, I found out that excessive military spending can hurt a nation's defense in the long term. Then I discovered that the 54 year economic cycle and the input/output model helped reconcile the pro (seemingly true on the regional level) and con (true on the national and continental levels) military economy debate into one coherent theory. Then I discovered that the deficit, especially in World War II, explains why following military spending alone can be misleading. Then I discovered that a long term model of military spending and the economy leads to the inclusion of the Juglar cycle of about eight to ten years. Then I discovered the regional and military state concepts explain why every president elected in the Cold War came from a high military state. The social decay of empire concept emerged after a conversation with my uncle. A direct international association of murder and military spending came out of that empire theory. After the 1988 drought, followed by three years of searching sixteen global and U.S. data sets and a lot of soul searching, I discovered the source of the 54 year economic cycle was actually in a global warming and cooling cycle. The temperature cycle leads the economic cycle which leads the war cycle. This last point is the most difficult of all to teach, as it can easily be a full workshop by itself.
Unfortunately, there has been little increase in understanding a quarter century later among the press, politicians, or academics. But the need to understand these new concepts has never been greater. Without these new insights, countless miscalculations occur every day by the press and pundits, as these insights still put me way ahead of the best of the pundits and economists. The military centered empire perspective is sadly lacking from most intellectuals thinking, and if you want to judge my work by their standards you can easily put me down. Its hard to adopt a whole new way of looking at the world, but my work is rigorous and internally consistent. Paul Krugman of Princeton and the New York Times still thinks that World War II brought us out of the Great Depression. John Nichols of The Nation still thinks trade alone explains all the current international economic disruptions. Larry Summers thinks military spending stimulates the economy and so we remain in Afghanistan. Joe Stieglitz gets it right, but devotes only one page to military economics in his Three Trillion Dollar War book. I would gladly challenge any of them to a debate, they all have a lot to learn from my work. Likewise, the global warming debate would greatly improve in accuracy if they incorporated the 55 year cycle. The two thirds of a century period linear results of my 55 year moving average of temperature clearly shows an almost perfect .998 correlation, with a doubling of the heat rate in the last decade on a new linear track. Come on world, it's time to catch up with Reuschlein's theories. Join the new Copernican revolution before we end up in the new Feudalism.
Peace Economics shows that empires rise to their peak with low military spending, militarize, then slowly collapse with high levels of military spending. Also, brain drains toward the center of power can significantly delay the decline of empire (see IMMIGRATION.).
The accuracy of the economic model developed
from these findings is about TEN TIMES BETTER than mainstream economic forecasting.
The longer the time period and the larger the geographic area, the closer this system
comes to perfection.
The higher a nation's military spending the
lower its manufacturing productivity, a main ingredient in economic growth. (see Productivity v Govt. Manufacturing.)
why Germany and Japan caught up with the United States and Italy passed Great
Britain during the Cold War. In the nineties, cutting the military in half restored
more economic forces to the normal economy in the United States than in any other leading
America became the LEADING NATION in the world
due to a century and a half of low military spending, and all great powers arise this way.
Then they militarize as the U.S. did in World War II and eventually collapse under the
All these findings were so stunningly
unambiguous that the models I built out of these findings were unusually exact and
relatively simple. In country after country, time period after time period, the pattern
persists. This is not another self-delusional prophecy; it represents enduring
The links below show the model accuracy period by period:
MODEL ACCURACY - MODEL VOLATILITY
Model and actual are virtually identical. The volatility model shows the increasing
accuracy over time of the year by year results: Five times as accurate today as in
the roaring twenties.
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